Let’s not waste time with a protracted preamble. It is Sunday’s NFL Championship. Within the NFC Match, the highest seed and NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles She is going to host the second seed and NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers.
These two groups had been the 2 greatest groups within the convention for the overwhelming majority of the season, they usually’ll beat it for the fitting to signify the NFC on the Tremendous Bowl. Earlier than we break down the match, this is a have a look at learn how to watch the match.
How do you watch
Date: Sunday 29 January | time: 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Monetary Subject (Philadelphia)
tv: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (Attempt without spending a dime)
Prospect: Eagles -2.5, O/U 46 (Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Featured recreation | Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
When the 49ers have the ball
Let’s begin by speaking about Brock Purdy, as a result of the best way he handles the Philadelphia rush might be the turning level on this recreation.
Earlier than final week’s recreation vs CowboysPurdy has fallen again to cross 177 occasions since taking up the function of Jimmy Garoppolo once more in Week 13. He has accomplished 110 of 161 passes (68.3%) for 1,308 yards (8.12 per try), 13 touchdowns and solely three interceptions. He was sacked 11 occasions, and confronted strain at in regards to the common fee within the league (32.8% vs. 32.6%). The Dallas rush was capable of get Purdy extra usually final week (48.5% strain fee, per Tru Media), and although Purdy was solely sacked twice and never picked off (though he did have a possible dropped interception), his effectivity took a success. (7.38 yards per try).
Throughout the common season, the Cowboys had been one of the best staff within the league at getting pressured (43.3% of opponent operating again), however the Eagles had been simply behind them in second place (38.4%). And the Eagles had been barely higher at changing pressures into sacks: 11.2% of Philly pressures resulted in quarterback takedowns (first within the NFL), in comparison with 8.9% of Dallas pressures (second). This distinction might be extremely significant on this match.
The Eagles can throw extra our bodies on their cross rush than the Cowboys can. Jonathan Gannon will spin via Hasson Reddick, Josh Candy, Brandon Graham, and Robert Quinn on the sting, whereas bringing in (largely) Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave within the center. San Francisco has elite left sort out in Trent Williams on the left facet of the road, however Mike McClinchey might be weak on the fitting, and guards Aaron Banks and Spencer Burford are higher at blocking runs than defending passes.
After all, Kyle Shanahan might be the premier offensive planner within the league proper now, and can undoubtedly create benefits for Purdy. Shanahan has loads of instruments at his disposal to create huge throwing passes: Solely 9.4% of Purdy’s passes have been thrown in a decent window this season, in keeping with NFL.com’s Subsequent Gen Stats, good for the second lowest fee within the NFL. These huge passes usually give the likes of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey loads of room to run the ball, which is why Purdy ranks third within the NFL behind solely Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes in yards after catches. (6.45).
Shanahan strikes Samuel and Aiyuk across the formation so he does not frequently subdue them to both Darius Slay or James Bradberry on the skin, however the anticipated return of Eagles slot nook Avonte Maddox softens that technique a bit. Philadelphia ranks twenty seventh in success fee towards throws to the outlet when Maddox is out this season, in keeping with Tru Media, and first when Maddox is within the area. Bringing him again into the fold would make all of the distinction.
We all know San Francisco’s offense is designed to assault the center of the sector, and Shanahan, Purdy & Co. will possible attempt to benefit from Philadelphia gamers. (Kittle ought to be fairly particular right here.) A lot of the midfield passing recreation will depend on the play offense, although, and Philly has been first within the EPA for each opponent operating again for cross performs this season. The Rivals accomplished simply 59.7% of their passes for a mean of 6.56 yards per try, whereas additionally throwing six touchdowns towards 5 interceptions. The 49ers’ passing offense may be very totally different from the league’s customary offense, however there may be purpose to imagine that Philly is healthier outfitted than most opponents to deal with it.
Due to all of those elements, the Niners will possible attempt to battle this struggle within the operating recreation. Philadelphia has had a a lot better passing landing (a primary in DVOA for outside soccer) than the twenty first spherical this season, although the Eagles have fared higher in that division once they managed to make use of at the very least one off Jordan Davis and/or Linval Joseph. The San Francisco rush assessments groups with selection and misdirection. He’s not out of the zone after the outer zone after the outer zone. The 49ers will run all types of schemes now, giving the ball to a number of various gamers. They are going to power opponents to declare their intentions based mostly on the place Samuel, McCaffrey, Awok, or Kyle Goshek line up, after which use these intentions towards them.
The Philadelphia protection is not fairly as quick because the Dallas unit that San Francisco battled towards final week (there are only a few gamers quicker than Micah Parsons, in any case), so the Eagles could also be extra vulnerable to ambient influences. They didn’t see a lot success within the divisional spherical. The Niners will use both McCaffrey, Samuel, or Elijah Mitchell (if he performs) on these punts, and every can injury the protection in several methods.
When the Eagles have the ball
One of the best factor about Philadelphia’s offense this season is that it has proven a powerful capability to differ in an effort to assault the opposition’s particular weaknesses. Dangerous towards escape? The Eagles would hit the rock all day, as they did dashing for over 250 yards in two totally different video games towards the Giants, and an unbelievable 363 yards towards Packers. Weak in entrance of the cross? They will mild you within the air, like once they solely had 19 dashing again makes an attempt towards Jalen Hurts’ 39 passes towards titansand burned them for 380 yards and three scores.
The 49ers protection is nice in virtually each means. The Niners completed the common season second in DVOA dashing protection, and fifth towards cross protection. They had been first within the EPA per dip and first within the EPA on the dashing try. They generated above-average pressures and sacks, rating third within the league in yards allowed earlier than a name per rush and first in yards after a name. They not often allowed explosive passes or passes, and had been arguably one of the best sort out staff within the NFL. They’re extremely properly educated, have a couple of absolute freaks who can spoil any opponent’s recreation plan in Nick Bosa, Eric Armistead, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.
So, the place do vultures assault? For me, it is deep within the area. The 49ers had been first within the DVOA towards quick passes, however solely twenty fourth towards deep passes. The showdown between AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, Charvarius Ward and Decommore Lenoir is taken into account probably the most vital on this side of the showdown. When throwing for at the very least 20 yards downfield, Hurts was 22 of 55 for 823 yards, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions throughout the common season. Solely two corners have allowed extra completions on these throws this season than Lenoir, who yielded seven completions on 13 makes an attempt, for 231 yards and a landing.
The issue with attacking on this means is that the 49ers design their protection to get these throws out of the best way. They play a number of excessive protection: They had been one among solely 5 groups to play at the very least 125 catches of each Cowl-2 and Cowl-4 throughout the common season. They are going to generally line up from their cornerbacks on the line of scrimmage, however cowl a deep quarter of the sector. They do not need groups that go deep, and for probably the most half, groups do not. Solely 9.8% of an opponent’s cross makes an attempt traveled at the very least 20 yards within the air, the tenth lowest fee within the league. The place openings can be found, opponents have been capable of take benefit generally.
One of many biggest steps the Eagles have taken as an offense this yr has been their capability to assault in the course of the sector. The Hurts not often threw there final season, however the addition of AJ Brown and opening Dallas Goedert means they’ve labored there greater than as soon as this season. However nobody is healthier at reducing out the center than the Niners, as a result of nobody else has Warner and Greenlaw. Which means that the tactic of assault is from the skin. Once more, which means going Lenoir and (to a lesser extent) Ward with passes down the sector.
The primary recreation of the whole weekend, although, might be one among arguably one of the best line of defense within the NFL towards one of the best line of defense. Nick Bosa, Samson Ipokam, Charles Omeniho and Jordan Willis vs. Jordan Mailata and Lynn Johnson. Arik Armistead, Javon Kinlaw, Kevin Givens, and Ty McGill vs. Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelsey, and Isaac Somalo. Philadelphia leaves its interventions on an island Extra usually than any staff within the NFL, which implies there will probably be probabilities for Bosa to get across the nook and get to Hurts…if he can catch him, that’s.