Biden’s soaring approval rating is good news for Democrats

Gives a new survey AP-NORC President Joe Biden Attractive 9 stumbling blocks in his approval ratings Since his lowest point this summer. This is great news for Democrats, who are less than two months away from the midterm elections, which increasingly look like they could be more than a fiasco. I expected earlier this year. If Biden’s rise continues, he could help Democrats fend off a Republican takeover of Congress.

While the survey shows Biden is still underwater, it found him rising from 36% approval among American adults in mid-July to 45% in the past week — in line with Broader increase in Biden job approvals during second half of summer. What explains this rebound after inflation fears have led many to assume a midterm bloodbath for Democrats? He called it the Dark Brandon Effect.

Dark Brandon penetrated the Washington trope as a place where beneficial politics suffer slow, painful deaths.

For those unfamiliar, Dark Brandon is a Democratic meme flipping the anti-Biden “Let’s Go Brandon” meme; If you do not want to read the explanationAll you need to know is that Biden’s surprising string of legislative victories this summer has upended the right-wing narrative of Biden as weak and ineffective. Last month, Biden and Democrats shocked the political world after striking a deal with West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin to pass some of Biden’s most ambitious climate and health policies. Inflation Reduction Act. Biden also signed two bipartisan Bills – one to enhance economic competitiveness against Chinawhile the other The first gun safety bill passed by Congress in 30 years. Furthermore it , Cancel Thousands of Dollars in Student Loan Debt for Millions of Americans.

Keep in mind that these victories – which generated a steady stream of positive coverage – all came after it was widely assumed that Biden had hit a wall and exhausted his ability to pass any more substantial bills in place of Biden as Dark Brandon hacked the Washington metaphor as a place Beneficial policies are suffering slow and painful deaths – and at a time of increasing political polarization, as in recent memory.

Beyond these policies, there has been a steady rhythm of positive news that has helped revive Biden’s ratings, Primarily among frustrated Democrats. Gas prices are down 26% since June, which relieves a very obvious source of financial pressure on consumers. And while the public’s concern about inflation remains, so do Americans Trending optimistic about the economy. The perception of the economy as a tough place for consumers is still Biden’s biggest weakness, but the fact that some anxiety — and news cycles — about price hikes bodes well for him.

There are also some other parts of the summer political climate that don’t directly reflect on Biden but might make the public more accepting of him. The Roe v. Wade coup has dramatically changed Democrats’ perspective on what is at stake in the midterm elections. And the constant coverage of Trump’s lawlessness, such as his illicit handling of classified government documents – which he appears intent on using to ramp up his fourth presidential bid – may serve as a reminder to voters why they chose Biden two years ago. In other words, Biden could be a beneficiary of an increased ambivalence with the alternative.

Regardless of how much the other political environment may improve, Democrats need to have Biden’s ratings trending positively as they prepare for Election Day. The president’s party has always lost midterm elections since the end of World War II. Political scientists have We discussed a long time ago what explains this – Some theories emphasize the increase in the turnout of opposition parties; Others emphasize voters turning against parties to act as a moderate check on the White House’s governing agenda.

Regardless of the mechanism, the president’s popularity seems to be a valuable proxy for the way the midterm winds blow. In the name of Andrew Prokop of Vox have indicatedPresidential approval ratings are “the clearest indicator of midterm fate.”

“Over the past seven midterms, we’ve had two presidents with more than 60 percent approval by midterms, and it was they who challenged the midterm defeat trend: Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002. (In 1998), the Democrats lost a House vote National Representatives, but they got seats), ” Prokop Books Explained in March.

Biden is far from that. The Democrats still have their work cut out for them. But things are looking a lot brighter than before, and if the economic picture improves the midterms, it could be better – or at least less painful – than seemed certain a few months ago.

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